Shutdown Winners and Losers

There’s been much hand-wringing and caterwauling within the Republican establishment about the damage done by Ted Cruz and the liberty movement’s quixotic efforts to derail ObamaCare. They tell us that Cruz did enormous harm to the GOP by fighting an unwinnable fight, by making Republicans appear as extremists, and by giving the Dems ammunition to use against the GOP in the 2014 midterm elections.

If considered from a purely tactical perspective, they may have a point. If the goal is simply about winning the next election, there is an argument to be made for being more circumspect, for biding time, for strategizing in unison. But, there are some problems with this thinking.

First, it’s a failed strategy. Consider the last 4 election years (06, 08, 10, 12). The GOP, fat and complacent, lost Congress in ’06. In ’08, they ran McCain (who was a maverick until he became next in line for the nomination) and lost to Obama. In ’10, the Tea Party and small government movement handed the Dems historic losses, no small feat for a movement that arose despite, not because of, the GOP establishment. In ’12, the GOP nominate Romney, because it was “his turn,” because he was “electable,” and lost an election they should have won. Meanwhile, the tea party freshmen held their seats, and the GOP kept control of the House.

What did we hear from the GOP elite through all of this? That the Tea Party “blew it” in three or four congressional elections because they nominated candidates that were “too extreme.” Did they complain about the “too extreme” candidates who won? No, but they did tell them to sit in the back of the classroom, shut up and do as they were told. Fortunately for us, they didn’t, especially at the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, when their vehemence forced the GOP leadership to hold firm and force Obama to concede an extension.

Second, what will we gain from an establishment GOP victory in the mid-terms, or in 2016? Sure, they’d likely be “less-bad” than the current majority if restored to power, but lest we forget, they ran the show the last decade, spent like drunken sailors, defenestrated our liberties and constitutional protections, and expanded the size and scope of government. Today, they rail against the very same actions by the other guys, yet by their behavior, give us very little reason to think they’d be any different apart from scope. I do expect that if the GOP takes full control of government it would repeal ObamaCare, which would be nice, and there’s even a glimmer of hope that they’d make the real, market-oriented and less-government changes that health insurance so desperately needs. But if you give the ball back to the losing team and say “you did good last time,” why would you expect anything to change?

The real losers of this latest to-do are, and yes it’s trite, the taxpayers. Nothing was done to slow down the reckless accumulation of debt. No message was sent that the administration had to change its ways regarding spending and government’s size. But, we were destined to lose this fight anyway, especially given the recent revelations from Ed Klein about Valerie Jarrett’s “don’t concede an inch” strategy – revelations that many apologists dismiss despite the obvious evidence of it i.e. President “I will not negotiate.”

So, what to do in the face of certain defeat? Some will say “play nice and wait for your chance.” But playing nice in this environment does nothing to enhance future chances. Playing nice means the other side gets to call you all sorts of names and make all sorts of spurious allegations that, with the help of a compliant and complicit press, go unchallenged. And, playing nice means giving in to the other side, time and again. When it comes time for elections, is that going to motivate voters to give you the reins of power? Is that going to energize the folks who are unhappy with the current situation?

Nothing is ever accomplished by reasonable men – Bucy’s Law of Accomplishment.

The Tea Party and the liberty movement arose out of a grass roots anger at the shockingly brazen rush towards statism embraced by the current administration. This is no small feat, because the nation’s been on a mostly steady march towards statism for nearly a century, and people have grown accustomed to big government in ways that would shock not only the Founding Fathers and the people of the Revolutionary era, but people from earlier in the 20th century. It is anger and dismay at government run amok that turns people out for rallies and at the voting booths.

And that’s the energy that the GOP will need to tap into if it is going to be the party that turns the nation away from the cliff. Many in the GOP are part of the problem, even if they belong to the “opposition” party. It is false to assume that, because the Dems and the Repubs are the two parties in this country, they are in opposition to each other. Really, they’ve been “Blue-Flavored Statism” and “Red-Flavored Statism” for too long. The GOP needs to change from within and it needs to energize and give hope to those who dislike what’s happening in the country.

Much of politics is showmanship. That’s an unavoidable truth. And that’s why the kabuki pieces by Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are so important to the future of the nation. Yes, both were quixotic, neither were acts that stood a chance of effecting real change. But, they fed a need and shed light on some harsh truths. And, they will serve as motivation for the beaten-down people in this country who want less government, not more, and who’ve been on the receiving end of the govt stick for too long.

Next time some GOP apparatchik decries one of the liberty movement politicians as a “wacko bird,” keep in mind that he or she is part of the reason the nation has reached this nadir. Why should they continue to hold the reins?

The GOP lost this round of squabbling, but there was no way it was going to win. It got a couple concessions, but the administration held all the cards, it had Harry Reid running hard interference in the Senate, and it had the press being John Sterling-esque “homers” in their coverage. Drudge reported that the networks blamed the GOP 41 times for the shutdown, and the Dems zero times. This despite, to repeat, President “I will not negotiate.”

All that’s available, then, is political theater. We got some, but the GOP opted to denigrate it instead of embracing it. The only sliver of positive energy and they cast it aside. Quixotic political theater was the only game where the outcome wasn’t predetermined, and THAT’s where the real GOP loss was.

As for the taxpayers? They were down 55-0 with 90 seconds left, no time-outs, the other team in possession and with three downs. There won’t be a game to win until November, 2014.