Prognostications v3

Yesterday’s Republican primary in Nevada, despite being only the fourth of 50, did a lot to clarify the presidential election picture. Trump won, handily, as the polls predicted, and embracing a “Trump will fade” belief is increasingly falling into the what we want to be true rather than what is true category. Super Tuesday is in 6 days, and 12 states will divvy up 25% of the total GOP delegates. So, with resignation, and because I haven’t updated my prognostications since early November, I boldly (and with no delusions that I can accurately see the future) declare…

Cruz is done. Toast. See ya – wouldn’t wanna be ya. He failed to pull the evangelicals in South Carolina, which means he can’t even rely on his base to come out for him. The election betting markets support this conclusion, putting him behind even Kasich for the Republican nomination. He’s going to come in third on Super Tuesday by a margin sufficient to make many call for him to bow out. This being a prognostication, I expect that Cruz will suspend his bid.
Kasich was done before he got started, and he, too, will bow out after Super Tuesday. So will Carson.
Trump will sweep Super Tuesday, and become the prohibitive favorite to win the nod. Rubio will place second, but his numbers will disappoint. Rubio will stay in the race, making it a two man show going forward. Trump will ultimately garner enough delegate votes to preclude a brokered convention, and he will win the GOP nomination.
Hillary will beat Bernie in South Carolina, and in doing so will make her nomination a sure thing.
Trump will beat Hillary in the general election and be our next president.

Why? Because he’s a master marketer, and has proven that he knows what to say and when to say it. Front-runners will flock to him. Many GOP stalwarts will hold their noses and vote for him, based on an anybody but Hillary mindset. Hillary’s email troubles will continue to dog her, and the drip-drip-drip strategy that has been working for her so far will start to work against her as the election nears. More than a few Bernie supporters will stay at home in disgust and with the notion of letting the GOP implode under President Trump. The MSM, long in the tank for the Clintons, will waver a bit, in part because they recognize that President Trump will be a ratings bonanza for the next 4 years.

Mind you, I will take no pleasure in this outcome. I merely predict, not condone.

Oh, and to save you the trouble of going back and looking…

In September, I predicted that Biden would throw his hat in and win the nomination. I predicted that Bush would be the new Romney i.e. last man standing. I predicted that Bush would lose to Biden and that the GOP would retain Congress by a slim margin.

In November, after Biden opted out and after we saw Bush’s weakness, I predicted Rubio v Hillary, with Rubio winning.

We’re a bit closer to the election now, and as we get closer, it becomes easier to winnow down the range of possibilities.

I’ll be back in a month or two with Prognostications 4.0. We’ll see then if I prove to be prescient or delusionalâ¦

About the Author

About Peter Venetoklis

I am twice-retired, a former rocket engineer and a former small business owner. At the very least, it makes for interesting party conversation. I'm also a life-long libertarian, I engage in an expanse of entertainments, and I squabble for sport.

Nowadays, I spend a good bit of my time arguing politics and editing this website.

If you'd like to help keep the site ad-free, please support us on Patreon.