Completely off the cuff and with full expectation that I’ll be wrong…
Joe Biden will throw his hat into the ring for the Dem nomination. He’ll have put on a show of reluctance and careful contemplation. A groundswell of clamoring from his constituents and the urging of his wife will be what tipped the scales. All of this will have been a well-orchestrated effort, prompted by Valerie Jarrett and Obama himself (both of whom reportedly loathe the Clintons). With the White House at his back, with Hillary’s scandals dogging her and her lack of political skills dragging her down, and with Bernie Sanders’ extremism scaring many Dems, Crazy Uncle Joe wins the nomination.
Meanwhile, Trump’s antics start getting old. A few of the lesser names in the GOP pool drop out, and their support goes to other candidates. Fiorina’s surge peters out, Jeb Bush staves off Rubio and Cruz, and Bush ends up as the GOP nominee.
Trump’s nativist crusade and the resultant shift in the other candidates damages the GOP brand among Latinos. The GOP’s focus on social issues after the gay marriage Supreme Court ruling and the Planned Parenthood videos damages its brand among independents.
Biden wins the general election by 50 electoral votes. The GOP retains the House, but loses 3 seats in the senate and barely holds on at 51.
I’ll be back a month from now with a whole new prediction.
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