Let’s see. Iran engages in a of provocations in the Middle East, beyond its long-running status as a state sponsor of terrorism in places like Israel, and culminating with orchestration of an attack on the US Embassy in Iraq. The US responds by killing the mastermind of that attack – in Iraq, not in Iran. Iran, in traditional Middle Eastern bluster-trash talk, promises a thousand revenges.
Democrats and the press, already in full election-season mode, condemn the strike, call Trump the usual names, and very publicly voice fears about reprisals, escalation, and impending war.
None of this should be in the least surprising. America has made a habit of targeting the top dogs in the GWoT, and anyone with half a brain who’s aware of the politics of the Benghazi debacle must know that any President in the WH today would have made it a top priority not to allow another such event to unfold. It would be political suicide.
Nor is it surprising that the press is warning us that Trump may lead the US into World War III. Hyperventilation is what passes for journalism nowadays. After all, one of the narratives ahead of the 2016 election was that Trump, the wild man, was certain to take the nation into a nuclear war with North Korea. The lack of imagination in political circles makes a redux of that angle all-but-certain, with no regard to three years of no-nuclear-Nork-war or other evidence of restraint.
The surprise is the sudden buzz about military conscription (aka the draft) being reinstated. Search engines are buzzing, memes are flying, social media chatter is chattering, and the press is ‘informing.’ After all, neither the Gulf War nor the Iraq war prompted a draft.
While it would be easy to conclude that this is all about millennials and their self-absorption, I’m too cynical not to ponder the possibility that it’s deliberate.
As in, the tastemakers in the press suggested it, and the usual suspects repeated it, in order to stoke fear in young people and turn them against Trump ahead of both the Senate half of the impeachment dog-and-pony show and the Presidential election itself. The impeachment, conducted as it has been, was never based on an actual belief that Trump would be either removed from office or cajoled into quitting, but rather about influencing public opinion ahead of the election this fall.
So is this draft hysteria, as far as I’m concerned. It’s not going to happen, just as a boots-on-the-ground war in Iraq is not going to happen. Even if the mullahs decide to continue their fight, it’ll be punch-and-run or small proxy stuff, not a massing of armies. And, Trump’s not about to mass armies either. But, even if things did escalate into a full-on conflict, there’s not going to be a draft.
Not even if Trump gets re-elected.
This is all about preventing that outcome – about winning the election for whomever the Democrats nominate.
That they don’t trust any of the field of candidates to win on merits rather than on fear speaks volumes.
As for the Middle East and our involvement there? I’d be quite happy if we packed up our stuff and got out. Told the Europeans “deal with it, or not, but we’re not globocop any more,” and let the Sunnis and Shias continue their centuries-long conflict. Seven trillion dollars and multiple decades of involvement hasn’t delivered any of what was promised. But, as far as Qasem Soleimani goes? Reap what you sow, asshole.
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