Obama, in his first major action since the 2014 electoral drubbing, went on prime time television to announce that he would order a set of actions to alter the status of several million illegals in the country. Much has been made of this rather broad use of “executive discretion” or whatever euphemism is being applied, but lets set that aside and consider the motivation, purpose and result of all this.
The President’s justification is, in essence, “Congress won’t act, so I will.” That’s an interesting declaration to make, because Congress, the newly elected Congress, the 114th Congress, has not even met. It doesn’t formally begin until January 3rd, 2015. Meaning that, when Obama says “Congress won’t act,” we must assume that he’s either declaring psychic powers or referring to the current Congress, the 113th Congress, now in “lame-duck” session. A Congress that has been meeting for 2 years.
There has been a lot of debate about immigration reform over the past couple years, but not much in the way of legislative activity. The reasons for this can be debated endlessly. Many will lay blame on the Republican House and others on Obama’s management style. The reasons are secondary – the fact remains that nothing happened for almost the entire duration of the 113th Congress. Obama could have taken this planned set of executive actions at any time, but he waited until after the mid-term election but before the new Congress convenes. Why now?
The obvious answer is that he knew this action would be unpopular among many voters, and didn’t want to give the Republicans another talking point for the mid-terms. Turns out, that didn’t matter – his party got drubbed anyway. But, that doesn’t answer why he’s acting before even giving the new Congress a chance to write a bill to send to his desk – something he’s challenged the GOP to do. He may expect the new Congress not to act, and he’s almost certainly correct if he expected the new Congress not to enact the reforms he’s imposing via executive action.
Therein lies the real reason he’s acting before Congress convenes. Obama wants immigration reform, but only on his terms. He doesn’t want to sit down and hammer out a compromise bill with Congress, because compromise is what lesser mortals do, and he’s better than that. He wants a victory, but knows that he can’t get one with conventional tactics. So, he’s moving the goalposts.
In many areas of public policy, the current state of things is usually the starting point for change. This is the dirty secret behind baseline budgeting and the way politicians can claim that an action is a spending cut even if spending continues to increase. Comprehensive immigration reform must include some practical plan to address the illegal population, with an emphasis on practical*. While there is much sturm und drang on conservative internet forums about rounding them up and deporting them, that’s simply not going to happen, and any proposal that includes such a provision won’t even make it into a committee.
By altering the status of millions of illegals, Obama changes the starting point for any further action. If the 114th Congress doesn’t like Obama’s changes, it doesn’t have the option of simply not including them in proposed legislation. Congress will have to write legislation to reverse Obama’s executive action, and Obama will then have the luxury of vetoing that legislation, declaring that Congress is trying to “move things in the wrong direction,” and portray the Republicans as uninterested in immigration reform. If Congress does decide it wants to make an honest and legitimate effort at reform, it will have to work from the new baseline, to presume that Obama’s changes are the established law. That’ll be the only way any other reforms (things like guest visas, changes to immigration quotas, etc) will stand a chance of passing.
Tactically, it’s a strong move by Obama. He gets to get his way on immigration and push a Congress that hasn’t even met yet back on its heels on this issue. Strategically, though, it “poisons the well,” as incoming Senate majority leader John Boehner noted. It declares that Obama’s relationship with the new Congress will be bitterly adversarial. Make no mistake, this was likely even without BO’s current move, but the current move makes it a lock, and an overt and openly declared one at that. Obama has set the tone and precedent for the balance of his presidency, and it’s a precedent that doesn’t bode well for the next two years.
Most importantly, it’s a terrible, terrible precedent for the future. It establishes a major shift of power to the executive branch, the branch that’s already become far more powerful than the Constitution ever intended. Those who cheer Obama’s action would do well to heed this warning, because there will come a day when someone they don’t like will be sitting in the White House, wielding a pen and a phone, ignoring the limits that are supposedly placed on his office by the Constitution, and doing more of the same. Fans of Obama, don’t be too happy about all this. You’ll have no one but yourselves to blame when the next President or the next does something you don’t like.
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