The 2014 mid-term election victory for the Republicans has prompted comparisons to the 1994 mid-term election and its aftermath. Twenty years ago, over-reach in the direction of statism by the Clinton administration led to historic victories for the Republican party and a takeover of the House by the Gingrich-led GOP. Somewhat famously thereafter (at least for us wonks), President Clinton changed the tenor of his governance, eschewing progressive ideas in favor of practicality and prioritizing political success over the liberal wish list. He cherry-picked the most popular ideas put forth by the Republicans, worked some compromises, and recast himself as a moderate. Whatever one’s personal opinion of Clinton, no matter what a rational analysis says to the contrary, and no matter that he was dragged kicking and screaming to his new “center,” his post-1994 years are widely viewed as a good and successful time in American history.
The inevitable question that arises is – will Obama take a page from the Clinton playbook and tack to the center in his last two years in office? Will he recognize that his greatest chance at a positive and lasting legacy is by tacking to the center, by taking up and co-opting issues the GOP rode to electoral success? Will Obama tack, even a little bit, toward the center?
Not a chance.
The Obamas don’t like the Clintons, and the Clintons don’t like the Obamas. This animosity has several roots, but I suspect the biggest is rooted in ego. Both Bill and Barack have big ones, with little genuine humility to temper them. For Obama to act in a fashion that bears even the slightest resemblance to Clinton’s past actions, after 6 years of doing things his own way, would invite all sorts of comparisons and declarations of failure by the chattering classes. Can anyone imagine that Obama would be OK with some talking head stating that he wised up and followed in Clinton’s footsteps? Does it seem likely that our egotistical and thin-skinned president would act in any fashion that would invite that comparison? To do so would not only subordinate the perception the public has of his skills to those of Clinton, it would also suggest that, perhaps, Hillary should have been nominated over him in the first place. It would also give Hillary a boost in the 2016 election campaign. The clash of egos alone is enough to discount the possibility that Obama will move to the center.
But, if that isn’t enough, consider how different politics today are from the 90s. Certainly, the Dems and Repubs have been publicly at each others’ throats as long as the parties have existed, as have voters who align with those parties, but the 00s saw the rise of a new political faction, the Angry Left. No longer are the guys on the other side simply wrong. Now they’re evil, despised and reviled. The Angry Left’s response to the Right is more visceral, more gut-level, and more irrationally bilious than it seemed to be in times past. To accept the Republican victories and take a conciliatory and compromising stance would be, to some, worse than drinking drain cleaner. How will that crowd feel about its hero, the Ôone they’ve been waiting for,’ if he acts like just another politician? How will that affect Obama’s legacy with those he wants to admire it?
Then, there’s the time component. Obama was sent the very same message by the voters in 2010. The GOP rode an anti-Obama, anti-Obamacare and anti-big-government wave to a House majority in Obama’s first mid-term. Some, myself included, speculated as to whether he’d “pull a Clinton” after that loss. He didn’t, choosing instead to entrench and become more combative. With the help of a press corps that was all too happy to propagate narratives that favored the Dems and a Senate majority leader that prevented any uncomfortable bill from reaching his desk, he stood defiant, resisting any message that the election might have been considered to contain. This stance didn’t hurt him electorally – he was re-elected rather easily. What does he have to gain by changing his approach of the last 6 years for the final two years of his presidency? What positive impact on his legacy – the legacy that matters to him, not the legacy that historians will consider decades from now – can be derived from abandoning his combative, my-way-or-the-highway relationship with the GOP?
Finally, there are Obama’s detractors, those who think poorly of his presidency, his ability and his motives. Would a tack to the center change those minds? Will a genuine effort to cooperate with Congress, will foregoing the “pen and phone” in favor of compromise and the taking up of popular initiatives get people to suddenly say “hey, he’s doing a good job?” After 6 years of animosity, truculence, and naked distaste for the GOP? Not likely.
Some may suggest that Obama’s response will depend on what the GOP does, whether the Congressional majority attempts to reach out to the president and offer up the opportunity and the invitation for a setting aside of past differences for the good of the nation. Don’t count on it. In a relationship this combative, that sort of outreach will more likely be viewed as a weakness to be exploited than an opportunity to achieve peace. It would also require an admission of error on Obama’s part, an acceptance that his vision, style and policies have been rebuked by the voters. That’s not going to happen.
Bill Clinton’s tack to the center after mid-term defeat was prominent enough and is memorable enough to prompt immediate comparison should Obama do anything of the sort. The last thing that Obama wants is to go down in history as Clinton 2.0.
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